To ensure the safety of railroad operations, it is important to monitor and forecast track geometry irregularities. A higher safety requires forecasting with a higher spatiotemporal frequency. For forecasting with a high spatiotemporal frequency, it is necessary to capture spatial correlations. Additionally, track geometry irregularities are influenced by multiple exogenous factors. In this study, we propose a method to forecast one type of track geometry irregularity, vertical alignment, by incorporating spatial and exogenous factor calculations. The proposed method embeds exogenous factors and captures spatiotemporal correlations using a convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM). In the experiment, we compared the proposed method with other methods in terms of the forecasting performance. Additionally, we conducted an ablation study on exogenous factors to examine their contribution to the forecasting performance. The results reveal that spatial calculations and maintenance record data improve the forecasting of the vertical alignment.

子空间聚类方法拥抱一个自表现模型，表示每个数据点作为数据集中的其他数据点的线性组合是强大的无监督学习技术。然而，在处理大规模数据集时，通过参考作为字典的所有数据点来表示每个数据点的表示患有高计算复杂度。为了缓解这个问题，我们通过梳理多个子集，引入并行的基于多子集的自表现模型（PMS），该模型表示每个数据点，每个数据点仅包括小百分比样本。子空间聚类中的PMS采用（PMSSC）导致计算优势，因为分解到每个子集中的每个优化问题很小，并且可以并行地求解。此外，PMSSC能够组合从子集获得的多个自我表达系数矢量，这有助于改善自表现。对合成数据和现实世界数据集的广泛实验表明了我们对竞争方法的方法的效率和有效性。